年代后&这是史上最糟糕的第一季度, the stock market made history with an unprecedented recovery, 让许多投资者和预测者大吃一惊. Following the market lows reached on March 23rd, the S&截至第二季度末，p500上涨了38%, marking one of the sharpest rallies over the past 100 years. The rally was not only monumental given the total return in just 3 months, but there was also 29 trading days (out of 70) that were up over 1%.
With assurance from Chairman Powell that “we will not run out ammunition”, along with optimism that coordinated and focused scientific research would eventually lead to a vaccine (WHO reported there are more than 100 vaccine candidates and over 20 in clinical trials), investors started to look past the pandemic and forward to an economic recovery.
We spent many hours at the end of 2019 looking at all the potential risks in the economy and markets and nowhere did we find a global pandemic caused by a bat in China. This quarter was the worst performing 1st quarter in history with the S&P 500 down 35% on March 23rd, before rallying to close the quarter down 20%. It took only 18 trading days to go from the greatest market in history to a bear market. There was no discrimination in the decline as nearly all companies suffered significant declines, 不管他们的健康和成长前景如何. 除非我们陷入萧条, we believe that much of the bad news has now been priced into stocks. However, a market bottom is typically a process and not an event. The coming months will tell us more about this recovery as the duration will dictate its shape: V, 你或我.
正如我们几周前简要强调的，作为
equity markets began to sell-off, we continue to monitor the economic turmoil
and remain confident that global markets will recover from the economic
uncertainty that we are facing with COVID-19 (Coronavirus). 正如我们所说的
clients in the past, volatility and economic/political uncertainty is very
normal in financial markets and it’s important to not overreact and panic. It
is very normal for investors to feel like this time is different as we go
通过修正. 而环境驱动每一个总是
different, one thing we know is that we eventually emerge, and over time, the
市场继续走高.
当然，我们密切关注着所有的头条新闻
and like everyone else don’t know how long this will persist; but what we do
know is that the underlying US economy appears strong and the financial system
是资金充足. We are still in the early stages of truly understanding
the full economic, financial and social impact to our economy and globally.
There is no doubt at this point that global GDP will slow, but we remind
clients that the market is forward looking and already pricing this in to some
程度上. 也就是说, the possibility of more downside is very real, and the bottoming
这个过程可能需要一段时间.
我们将密切关注客户的投资组合
adjust as new information becomes available, but we are not in the business of
把握市场时机，判断顶部/底部. 我们分配了每个客户
based upon the plan that we set in place for them and we do not believe it’s a
time to deviate from that by either dialing up risk or by bringing it down
显著. With the range of outcomes being so vast, we feel it best to
坚持到底. It’s not time to sell but it’s also not a time to ditch your
债券和现金换股票.
我们正在努力工作，试图确定我们如何使用
this downturn to our advantage: tax loss harvesting, buying great companies at
陡峭的折扣, & shedding exposure to areas of the economy that we view
不稳定，比如能量. 你已经听过我们反复强调
diversification and periods like we are currently experiencing are a reminder
为什么它是至关重要的. 我们的债券和其他多元化策略
在过去几周表现得很好.
As investors continue to grapple with the near-term issues impacting global markets, we believe there is disruptive innovation happening simultaneously and could be the transformative innovation platforms that can drive the economy out of a potential recession and power growth for many years in the future. 主要的范畴是(来源:方舟投资):
8月14日, the 10 year Treasury Yield went slightly below the yield for the 2 year Treasury, 这是自2007年以来的第一次. 经济学家密切关注10年与. 2 year Treasury yields, as its historically been a strong predictor that a downturn is on the way. The yield curve has inverted before every US recession since 1955, although it sometimes happens months or years before the recession starts. The average time between the last 5 yield curve inversions and a recession was 17 months. This lead time is the key and its still very uncertain how long a lead time we may have in the current economy before there is an actual recession. 也就是说, 反向收益率曲线, 和其他指标一样, is not perfect and doesn’t mean a recession is imminent.
On Christmas Eve it looked like the bull market was over, 市场在不到四分之一的时间里下跌了近20%. Now, 6 months later, we are back at all-time highs and the market has rallied over 26%. While the average investor is left scratching his or her head, 反弹是一个主要催化剂的结果, the Federal Reserve’s desire to keep interest rates low. 这不是一个新现象, as the low interest rates have been a driver of much of the market’s success over the past decade.
